Tony Zarsadias of Rennie & Associates Realty discusses Victoria's current real-estate market, and identifies why the region remains one of the most stable housing markets in the country while other cities face significant turbulence.  Citified.ca
Q&A with Rennie's Tony Zarsadias on Victoria's 2026 pre-sale and re-sale housing markets
Ten on the 10th
Published February 10, 2026
Citified's Ten on the 10th is a monthly question-and-answer segment connecting our readers with the insight and knowledge of Victoria's top real-estate and business professionals.
Ten on the Tenth's February, 2026 segment features Tony Zarsadias, Real Estate Advisor with Rennie & Associates Realty, and former CEO of The Condo Group Real Estate, which rebranded as Island Realm Real Estate prior to its acquisitoin by Rennie & Associates. Tony was featured in Citified's May, 2022 Q&A on the residential real-estate market and new housing supply.
Asking the questions is Ross Marshall, Senior Vice President of the Victoria offices of commercial real-estate brokerage CBRE. As a leader in facilitating large-scale commercial real-estate transactions throughout the Capital Region – which include apartment complexes, industrial retail and office properties, and land/development opportunities – Ross and his team are at the forefront of market-leading real-estate transactions on Vancouver Island.
Would you like to be featured as part of a future Ten on the 10th Q&A? We'd like to hear from you.
You’ve been back in the ‘trenches’ as a realtor specializing in developer services and strata-titled properties for the past year or so, after more than 20 years of leading sales teams as an owner with Island Realm Real Estate (now Rennie & Associates Realty after an acquisition). How has it been to dive back into selling in a market that has softened since the heightened market in the past?
Over the past 20 years, I’ve seen multiple peaks and valleys, and although the current slowdown feels unprecedented, the sentiment is familiar. Too many headlines focus on year-over-year or month-over-month snapshots — which are good for grabbing attention, but not great for understanding the big picture. What matters is the long-term baseline, and today we’re sitting about 15% below the 10-year average for sales activity. That’s the measure we use for a “normal” market.
It feels slower than that 15% because this moderation has lasted longer than past cycles. But stepping back into day-to-day advisory work has actually reinforced something I’ve always preferred: balanced markets where buyers have the time and space to be thoughtful. Urgency shouldn’t be the driving force behind major financial decisions.
Sellers certainly have their work cut out for them, but well-priced and well-marketed homes are still selling. And despite the doom-and-gloom narratives, current listing levels are comparable to 2014, when the sky wasn’t falling. So I don’t believe it’s falling now either — the fundamentals in our region remain sound.
A big part of Victoria’s dynamic is simply confidence. Global uncertainty weighs heavily on people, but our structural supply issues — spread across 13 municipalities, each with its own approval processes — have unintentionally limited development for years. So while it may appear that we have lots of inventory, it’s actually not as high as it could have been if past applications had flowed more efficiently.
What is the fundamental reason for the slow-down in pre-sale offerings in our region?
There isn’t one single reason, but a combination of policy decisions and shifting buyer behaviour. Broadly, government efforts have focused far more on curbing demand than enabling supply. The foreign buyer ban, speculation taxes, the federal anti-flipping rule, and the new Short-Term Holding Profit Tax all share the same goal: reduce demand. But in doing so, they removed a key piece of the pre-sale ecosystem — the 'simple investor.'
Historically, developers offered attractive early pricing to encourage a handful of investors to buy at the front end. Those early sales supported construction financing, especially given the very high interest rates developers routinely pay to build. Without those presales, most projects simply don’t get built.
With investor participation largely gone, developers now rely almost entirely on end-users — people trying to plan years into the future. Many buyers simply don’t think that far ahead, especially in a softer market where re-sale homes often look like better value. And if a buyer doesn’t see a meaningful difference between a preowned home and a brand new one, the re-sale market will almost always win.
Add to that the fact that re-sale prices have come down while construction costs haven’t — and in many cases have risen — and you end up with a market where developers can’t price new homes at the same level as comparable older stock. The risk profile for developers remains extremely high, but the misunderstanding around that risk continues to grow.
Toronto and other large cities in Canada have experienced a glut of unsold condominium inventory. Victoria does not appear to have this issue, but can you describe the market from an unsold inventory perspective? And why are we experiencing a different scenario than Vancouver or Toronto is?
Cities like Toronto and Vancouver have seen a dramatic build-up of unsold new-home inventory because they’ve had massive pre-sale pipelines for years — often driven by large investor pools and sustained periods of heavy construction. As demand has cooled, those markets are left with thousands of completed but unsold units.
Victoria, by contrast, simply hasn’t built at the same scale. Our development pipeline is smaller, more measured, and more aligned with local end-user demand. While inventory is higher than in recent Januaries, it’s still within a balanced range and nowhere near the levels seen in the country’s largest urban centres.
In short, Victoria’s supply and absorption are more in sync. Fewer mega-projects and a more cautious development environment have kept our unsold inventory from ballooning.
We keep hearing the pre-sale industry is headed for years of sales challenges as buyers pull back from new-build homes. Is that the reality you’re seeing in the trenches?
Unless the government revisits some of the legislation targeting investors, we’ll likely continue to see tougher pre-sale conditions. But that doesn’t mean the entire pre-sale sector is stalled. Quality still sells.
Well-designed homes in strong locations — created with a clear end-user profile in mind — are performing much better than the broader narrative suggests. I’m currently marketing two such developments, one in Cordova Bay and one in James Bay, and both are seeing strong uptake from committed buyers who value thoughtful design, quality construction, and premium locations.
As Warren Buffett has famously said, in turbulent times there is a flight to quality. I’m seeing that play out locally: buyers are stepping up for the right product.
What advice would you give pre-sale buyers navigating the current market, and its pre-sale offerings?
First, take a long-term view. A new home is not a short-term investment vehicle — it’s a long-term lifestyle decision. Think about the benefits: warranties, energy efficiency, not having to worry about deferred maintenance, and the peace of mind that comes with a modern building meeting today’s robust building codes.
Second, work with an advisor who truly understands pre-sales and new construction. Not all projects are created equal. Your agent should not only understand the differences between what’s currently available, but also have insight into future supply — because upcoming projects can absolutely affect the value of the home you’re considering today.
Looking to a value proposition, where would you say the value in our current pre-sale market is?
In my view, the best value right now lies in the best locations. I’ve never been someone who blindly repeats “location, location, location,” but in today’s market it’s hard to ignore. If you can secure a new home in an A+ location — with long-term livability, walkability, and neighbourhood appeal — that’s where the strongest value proposition exists.
What is your investment thesis right now for the condo market – who wins in this market?
Right now is an excellent time for end-users to secure new homes. Prices have softened from the peak, developers have adjusted, and future supply is far from guaranteed given construction costs, lending constraints, and ongoing policy headwinds.
If you plan to live in the home you’re buying, I believe this market presents meaningful opportunity. With limited new projects on the horizon, today’s buyers may end up very glad they acted when they did.
We’re seeing a noticeable increase in townhouse projects coming to market lately. Is this primarily a result of 'missing middle' initiatives, or is it being driven by genuine buyer demand for this product type?
We’re absolutely seeing 'missing middle' projects come forward, but that alone doesn’t guarantee strong absorption. There is a theoretical need for more ground-oriented homes, but the reality on the ground is more nuanced — and it ties directly into what we discussed earlier about local market fundamentals.
When you look at Greater Victoria’s inventory structure, townhomes in the Core and Peninsula actually sit in some of the tightest supply conditions across the entire region — roughly 3.5 to 3.8 months of inventory. Those segments are still showing stable or even rising year-over-year prices, which tells us that the underlying demand for well-located ground-oriented product is real.
The challenge is not demand — it’s pricing. Today, a buyer can find a detached home in Victoria's urban core for roughly $1.1 million, often with a suite. When you combine the rental income from that suite with no strata fees, the monthly carrying cost becomes very competitive.
Now compare that to new townhomes. As of today:
- There are 35 new townhomes on the market on MLS,
- With an average asking price of $1,066,100, and a median price just under $1 million.
Even though that’s technically cheaper than a detached home, once you factor in strata fees and the lack of suite income, the value proposition gets tougher — especially when many buyers are still anchored to the goal of owning a detached home. The dream of the single-family home is not dead in Victoria — not at these price levels.
So while there is structural demand for 'missing middle' homes, I expect absorption to remain measured until there is real upward pressure on detached-home pricing. Once detached becomes meaningfully more expensive than new townhomes on a monthly-payment basis, that’s when townhome absorption will really accelerate.
Right now, we’re in an interesting middle zone: townhomes are needed, but pricing hasn’t reached the point where they become the obvious choice for most buyers.
You’ve participated in UDI’s market updates and forecast presentations alongside rennie’s Andrew Ramlo over the past few years. You’ve often said there’s a lot of nuance in the Greater Victoria market. From the outside, the headlines make it sound like everything is slow everywhere. But you’ve suggested that’s not actually the case. Can you speak to that?
Absolutely — and this is where local fundamentals really matter. The media tends to paint the market with one broad brush, but when you break Greater Victoria down by area and product type, you see very different stories playing out.
When we look at the months of inventory and benchmark price changes across the region, the correlations are clear. Segments with tighter supply — generally anything under about four months of inventory — are still seeing stable or even rising prices. That includes townhomes in the urban core and on the Saanich Peninsula, and even detached homes in those same areas. These are markets where demand remains strong and supply is simply not keeping up, so pricing holds firm.
As inventory rises into the five-month range, you start to see some softening, but it’s measured and orderly. Urcan core condos, Saanich Peninsula condos, and West Shore townhomes fall into that category — prices are adjusting slightly, but the fundamentals remain relatively healthy.
Where the weakness really shows up is in the product types and sub-markets with the highest inventory — particularly on the West Shore, and especially in condos. When you’re sitting with seven or eight months of supply, prices are going to correct more sharply. That’s not a demand problem as much as it is an oversupply problem in very specific segments.
So when you zoom out, the narrative of a “slow market everywhere” just isn’t accurate. We’re seeing pockets of real strength — especially in ground-oriented product and in the Core and Peninsula — and we’re seeing softness in areas where completions and inventory have surged. Understanding that nuance is critical for developers, buyers, and policy makers, because Greater Victoria is not a monolithic market. It’s a collection of micro-markets, each responding to its own supply-demand balance.
Looking ahead, what’s your outlook for the Greater Victoria market over the next few years? Do you expect conditions to change meaningfully from what we’ve seen recently?
I do. Over the next few years, I expect the market to gradually regress toward the mean and return to something much closer to our long-term averages. For context, Greater Victoria’s 10-year sales average gives us a very good benchmark for what a 'normal' market looks like, and we’ve been operating well below that for the past two to three years.
The disconnect between buyers and sellers that defined 2022–2024 has eased significantly. Prices have stabilized, inventory has normalized in many segments, and buyers are now adjusting to the new interest rate environment. As that gap continues to close, I expect to see more transactions take place simply because both sides are now operating with clearer expectations.
With that increase in sales activity, I do anticipate a modest rise in benchmark pricing — nothing dramatic, but a healthy, fundamentals-driven appreciation. As supply and demand move back into balance, Greater Victoria should start to behave much more like the resilient, steady market we’ve always known it to be.
In short: more sales, more stability, and a gentle upward trend in prices as we move back toward long-term norms. C
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